The Storm before the Calm

By George Friedman

This is a profoundly wise book. And in many ways a shocking one. According to Friedman’s prediction (the book came out in 2020), who would win the 2024 presidency would be irrelevant. No matter which party won, it would be a failed presidency.

Combining the skills of political and cultural historian with those of an economist, Friedman presents a condensed history of the United States through two sets of transitional cycles. The 80-year cycles deal with the structure of the American government, and in their own way explore how crises force new solutions. For the first time in our history, the two cycles are culminating in the same decade, making this a time of heightened strife and turmoil. The 50-year cycles trace socio-economic transitions, each cycle solving a problem and creating a new one. Each one going from a seminal presidency to a failed presidency.

The opening 80-year cycles started with the creation of a new nation with an entirely new governmental system. This cycle runs to the end of the Civil War and consequent amendments to the constitution, changing the relation of federal government to the states. The second 80-year cycle goes to the end of WWII, altering the relation of the nation to the rest of the world and bringing about an American Age. We are presently on the cusp of completing the third transition, with resistance to American hegemony becoming wide-spread while our own form of government is challenged from within.

The first of the roughly 50-year periods extends from Washington through John Quincy Adams, with a wave of immigration, especially Scots-Irish, expanding the country westward. The second, from Jackson to Grant, includes the Civil War challenging America’s ‘original sin’ of slavery. The third cycle started with Rutherford B Hayes, who put the country on a gold standard to stabilize industry. It ended with Hoover and the Great Depression. In the 4th cycle, Roosevelt turned to Keynesian economics and ‘make-work programs’. The 2nd World War rejuvenated American industry and created a working class which, while giving new roles to women, vaulted the US into position as the dominant world power. The global financial crisis of 2007-08 brought this cycle to a close with Carter’s failed presidency, to be replaced by Reagan who cut taxes to the wealthy to encourage investment, but also pitted rich against poor.

Each side is presently attempting to move forward by strategies that return to the past. The problems facing us include a near 50-50 split in the electorate with deep hostility between the two factions; a post-industrial working class with declining prospects; an entangled hopelessly complex bureaucracy with government run by technocrats who don’t know how to work with each other; a forever war against rival religious and economic systems; and educational and tax systems which favor the elite leading to class warfare. As well, a general state of paranoia leads people to blame a ‘Deep State’ of an imagined group of conspirators who have consciously engineered the present situation. In actual fact what we have is more a deep state of confusion and distrust over how to reconcile conflicting needs.

Friedman is optimistic. In his analysis, resolution of present conflicts will necessitate new alliances and innovative solutions. As one side insists, the reign of the technocracy, which brought us success during industrial expansion, must be drastically amended and simplified so people can once again feel connected to their government. But, as the other side will point out, that cannot be through a plutocratic neo-monarchy risking our democratic system.

Friedman’s predictions for the 2030’s and beyond are innovative. Among them are: 1. solar energy collected in space and transferred by satellite to earth; 2. proposals for democratization of elite universities with in general more emphasis on teaching rather than ‘publish or perish’ (Friedman envisions a Harvard with 50,000 students yearly rather than 20,000); 3. reform of the judicial system, including the Supreme Court, to choose judges for their wisdom rather than technical legal expertise. But first, if Friedman is correct and as many of us sense, we are in for a period of turmoil, recrimination and hostility, including those of us in Mexico, and affecting the rest of the world. That is ‘the Storm’ of this decade, before ‘the Calm’ in the 2030’s and ’40’s.